Feature: Brown’s by-elections
By Alex Stevenson
Gordon Brown has another blot in his by-election book after losing Norwich North to the Conservatives.
On paper, at least, the prime minister has a decent record when it comes to by-elections.
The reality is somewhat different. Last year’s series of by-elections played an enormous part in triggering the leadership crisis which was only abated by his conference speech.
Disasters in Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East represented major setbacks – but the unexpected hold in Glenrothes rescued his by-election record from complete ignominy.
Following the Norwich North disaster, which saw a 17-point swing from Labour to the Conservatives, the momentum has once again shifted against the prime minister.
Sedgefield: Labour hold
July 19th 2007
Phil Wilson (Lab) – 44.8% (-14.1%)
Greg Stone (LD) – 19.9% (+8.0%)
Graham Michael Robb (Con) – 14.6% (+0.2%)
This was one by-election Brown would have fervently prayed for. The resignation of the Rt Hon Tony Blair from parliament, following his exit from No 10, paved the way for Brown to enter Downing Street. Any slump in support for Labour could be shrugged off because of the Blair factor.
Ealing Southall: Labour hold
July 19th 2007
Virendra Sharma (Lab) – 41.5% (-7.3%)
Nigel Bakhai (LD) – 27.6% (+3.2%)
Tony Lit (Con) – 22.5% (+0.9%)
On the same day Virendra Sharma was elected as Piara Khabra’s successor in Ealing South. He held off a strong challenge from the Tories, whose candidate – Mr Lit – was embarrassed when he was photographed smiling alongside Tony Blair.
He had stood for “David Cameron’s Conservatives” in Ealing Southall and the election was seen as a key test of the new-look Conservatives ability to appeal to ethnic minority urban voters.
However, the Tory campaign suffered setbacks with the defection of councillors and the revelation that Mr Lit was a Labour donor. Winner Virendra Sharma attacked the Tories, saying: “It is policies that win elections, not slick PR.”
Brown bounce returns two new Labour MPs
Crewe and Nantwich: Conservative gain
May 22nd 2008
Edward Timpson (Con) – 49.5% (+16.9%)
Tasmin Dunwoody (Lab) – 30.6% (-18.3%)
Elizabeth Shenton (LD) – 14.6% (-4.0%)
Eight months later, and the ‘Brown bounce’ was well and truly over. Earlier that month Labour had been pushed into third place in local elections. The row over the abolition of the 10p income tax band followed, prompting David Cameron to turn the by-election into a referendum on the prime minister’s decision. The scale of the defeat which followed was devastating.
Tamsin Dunwoody, the daughter of Labour veteran Gwyneth Dunwoody whose death had triggered the poll, was emotional following her failure to keep the seat red.
Victor Edward Timpson said: “Above all you have sent a message loud and clear that Gordon Brown just does not get it and the government needs to change.”
Henley: Conservative hold
June 26th 2008
John Howell (Con) – 56.9% (+3.5%)
Stephen Kearney (LD) – 27.8% (+1.8%)
Mark Stevenson (Greens) – 3.8% (+0.5%)
After Boris Johnson’s win in the London mayoral race Tory strategists took the opportunity to keep the momentum going against Brown. The tactic worked – Labour finished in fifth with just 3.1 per cent of the vote, behind the BNP, who also lost their deposit.
The by-election was marked by allegations of less than gentlemanly behaviour. John Howell accused the Lib Dems of “fighting dirty” after questions arose over his involvement in a campaign to save the local Townlands hospital.
Labour drops to fifth in Henley
Haltemprice and Howden: Conservative hold
July 10th 2008
David Davis (Con) – 71.6% (24.1%)
Shan Oakes (Greens) – 7.4% (+7.4%)
Joanne Robinson (English Democrats) – 7.2% (+7.2%)
Labour and the Liberal Democrats did not compete the election, making it slightly meaningless.
Coverage of Henley was overwhelmed by the Haltemprice and Howeden by-election, the result of a shock move by shadow home secretary David Davis.
Former shadow home secretary, that is. Mr Davis gave up the prospect of one of the most important offices of state to fight a by-election on a single issue: pre-charge detention for terror suspects.
It didn’t work – Labour and the Lib Dems simply refused to put up a candidate against him, although the turnout was impressive given there was no competition.
Glasgow East: SNP gain
July 24th 2008
John Mason (SNP) – 43.1% (26.1%)
Margaret Curran (Lab) – 41.7% (-19.0%)
Davena Rankin (Con) – 6.3% (-0.6%)
In a massive victory for the Scottish nationalists, the SNP’s John Mason overturned a Labour majority of 13,000 to snatch a 635-vote win in Glasgow East.
This was the lowest point for Brown, who had lost Labour’s third safest seat in Scotland in a major blow for Britain’s governing party.
SNP leader Alex Salmond described the victory as a “trial of strength” in which “London Labour” had been found wanting.
The 22.5 per cent swing achieved by the SNP, if transferred across the whole of Scotland, would see Labour’s representation reduced to just one seat north of the border.
Salmond gloats over victorious trial of strength
Glenrothes: Labour hold
November 6th 2008
Lindsay Roy (Lab) – 55.1% (+3.2%)
Peter Grant (SNP) – 36.5% (+13.1%)
Maurice Golden (Con) – 3.8% (-3.3%)
No surprise that, come the autumn, the latest electoral test to challenge the prime minister was a bitterly fought contest.
In the end it was Labour who held on despite a big challenge from the SNP. There was much speculation about whether party strategists should delay it as long as possible or call it before the crucial autumn conference; in the end it didn’t matter as Labour improved their result.
Context, as always, was everything: the ‘Brown bounce’ resulting from positive media coverage of the PM’s treatment of the international financial crisis was surely important.
Norwich North: Conservative gain
July 23rd 2009
So much has changed since then. Having briefly rallied, support for the prime minister plummeted away in the first half of 2009. Labour backbenchers stood on the brink last month but opted to back him instead of committing regicide.
The Labour leadership crisis was swamped, in column inches, by the expenses scandal. And it was this much bigger crisis which prompted Ian Gibson’s resignation, which in turn triggered the by-election. At one stage it appeared as if Dr Gibson, a popular figure locally, might stand as an independent.
His decision not to set up an enthralling race between Labour and the Tories. But those anticipating a close fight underestimated the extent of anger with voters at the Labour party’s treatment of Dr Gibson. The vote split, leaving Chloe Smith a clear winner.
” target=”_blank”>Analysis: Gibson’s ghost haunts Norwich North
