The Conservatives are heading for their worst election performance since the First World War, polling expert Sir John Curtice has said.
The leading psephologist said the party could be on course to win its lowest ever number of seats in the House of Commons.
It comes after a string of polls released on Wednesday forecast a large Labour victory this election.
A YouGov poll projected 425 seats for Labour and 108 for the Conservatives; while a survey by More In Common projected a Labour majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides, with the Conservatives falling just 155 seats — their worst total since 1906.
***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest election news and analysis.***
A poll by Savanta projected a drastic result for the Conservatives, with Labour winning 516 seats and the Tories falling to 53 MPs.
According to Savanta’s findings, Rishi Sunak could lose his Richmond seat to Labour — although the this race is among those the pollster says is still in the balance given the tight margins.
Rishi Sunak to lose seat alongside three-quarters of the cabinet, poll predicts
Asked if Sunak’s Conservatives are currently on course for a wipeout, Sir John Curtice told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “In terms of vote share, the Conservatives are at the moment heading for their worst performance since the First World War, since the advent of the mass franchise, by a country mile.
He added: “And secondly, not even the More in Common poll suggests they are going to reach their lowest ever number of seats in the House of Commons which is 156 all the way back in 1906.”
Sir John also outlined that the prime minister’s general election campaign has “not had any success” in narrowing Labour’s opinion poll lead.
He said: “Labour are now averaging 41 per cent which is three points down on where they were when Mr Sunak called the election.
“But they still remain 20 points ahead of the Conservatives because the Conservatives are now on 21 per cent which is also three points down on where they were.
“So Mr Sunak’s campaign has not had any success, according to these regular polls, in narrowing Labour’s lead.”
Speaking on Thursday morning, outgoing cabinet minister Michael Gove said the Conservative Party must “fight” for victory until the “final whistle” is blown on the campaign.
Asked on Times Radio if he believed the election was still winnable for the Conservatives, Gove said: “Well, I am a Scotland fan so I am used to adverse circumstances and grim predictions but I also believe that you wait until the last minute, until the final whistle has blown, and you fight until that point.
“Therefore, of course, you can look at the opinion polls, and I have got a lot of respect obviously for the methodological clarity that they bring to sampling public opinion.
“But this election is not an election between Savanta and YouGov. It is between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak and there is therefore a choice of policies, and for example on housing, my brief, I think we have got better ideas.”
Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest election news and analysis.
