After a difficult first few months as prime minister, Rishi Sunak undertook in January last year to define his time in Downing Street in the clearest possible terms with “five pledges”.
He called on the doubting public to “trust” him as he rolled out five shiny new pre-election pledges: place your faith in me and inflation would “halve”, he said, the economy would “grow”, debt would “fall”, NHS waiting lists would “shorten” and the small boats would “stop”
Ask the PM what he’s up to on a day-to-day basis, and he responds that his government is focussed on delivering his core missions. Ask the PM to expound his inner-most ideals, he returns to his New Year’s resolutions. Were you to ask Sunak for his choice of lunch, he’d explain how his chosen snack was boosting the local economy. Presumably, when he turns in for the night in No 10, the PM counts small boat crossings, not sheep.
In this way, Sunak explained how his five pledges would “deliver peace of mind — five foundations, on which to build a better future for our children and grandchildren.”
The PM has since insisted he is “straining every sinew” to make it happen. So, prime minister, how is it going?
(Page last updated on 22 April 2024).
PRIORITY ONE: Halving inflation
January 2023 speech: “We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.”
REALITY: ACHIEVED ✅
UK inflation for February was at 3.4 per cent, down from 4 per cent, official figures show.
It is a larger fall than expected after economists forecast the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figure to stand at 3.5 per cent in February.
It is also the lowest reading since September 2021, when inflation stood at 3.1 per cent.
Announcing the new figure, the ONS said: “The largest downward contributions to the monthly change… came from food, and restaurants and cafes, while the largest upward contributions came from housing and household services, and motor fuels”.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt responded by saying said this number could hit the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target “within months”.
Hunt said: “The plan is working. Inflation has not just fallen decisively but is forecast to hit the 2% target within months.
“This sets the scene for better economic conditions which could allow further progress on our ambition to boost growth and make work pay by bringing down national insurance as we work towards abolishing the double tax on work — but only if we can do so without increasing borrowing or cutting funding for public services.”
CPI was 10.7 per cent when Sunak vowed to half inflation in January — meaning the prime minister had to reduce the rate of price rises to 5.3 per cent.
In a statement released in November, on the morning the ONS announced inflation had fallen below 5.3 per cent, prime minister Rishi Sunak said: “In January I made halving inflation this year my top priority. I did that because it is, without a doubt, the best way to ease the cost of living and give families financial security.
“Today, we have delivered on that pledge.”
He argued that “hard decisions and fiscal discipline” from his government had contributed to the fall in inflation.
However, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has predicted that the UK will suffer the highest level of inflation of all the G7 countries in 2024 and 2025. That is despite revising down its predictions for headline UK inflation from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 2.5 per cent in 2025, to 2.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.
RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT DID THE PM ACTUALLY DO TO HALVE INFLATION?
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt outlined in the Spring Budget: “This government remains steadfast in its support for the independent Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England as it takes action to return inflation to the 2 per cent target”.
The government has also ruled out any tax cuts this year — foregoing a spike in demand which could drive up inflation. Similarly, the prime minister has consistently insisted that he will not offer “inflationary” pay rises to public sector workers — again, in a bid to damp down demand in the economy.
But the prime minister has been criticised for not being clear enough on the positive actions he took to halve inflation, as opposed to merely foregoing policies (tax cuts, pay rises etc).
He has also been criticised, not least of all by Nadine Dorries, for taking credit for inflation falling when monetary policy, the foremost instrument of which is interest rate controls, fall within the remit of the Bank of England.
Is chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s insistence that the government “supports” the decision-making of the Bank of England evidence of an active administration? Inflation was forecast to fall throughout 2023, largely driven by falling wholesale gas and oil prices, rather than concerted ministerial intervention.
PRIORITY TWO: Growing the economy.
January 2023 speech: “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunities right across the country.”
REALITY: The UK economy entered into a recession at the end of 2023 after contracting by 0.3 per cent in the final three months of the year, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The new figures mean the UK has now met the technical definition of a recession, with two quarters of economic contraction.
Speaking in February 2024, when the confirmation came, chancellor Jeremy Hunt said that it was “not a surprise” to see low economic growth “while interest rates are high”.
He insisted that “there are signs the British economy is turning a corner”.
Hunt argues UK economy is ‘turning a corner’ despite falling into recession in 2023
Labour responded by calling Hunt’s comments “insulting” and “out of touch”.
What may be important to note here, is that the ONS has revised its previous figures on economic growth. It has said the UK’s GDP grew by 8.7 per cent in 2021 — considerably better than the previously reported growth of 7.6 per cent.
It means that at the end of 2021 — rather than being 1.2 per cent smaller than it was going into the pandemic as previously reported — the UK economy was actually 0.6 per cent bigger. The prime minister and the chancellor have argued the figures show the broader growth picture of the UK is far better than many of the government’s critics suggest.
CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?
ONS revision notwithstanding, the big picture story of the UK’s sluggish growth rates has been one of the key talking points for politicians in recent months. It was, for example, a major preoccupation of Sunak’s short-lived predecessor Liz Truss.
After months of avoiding recession, and confounding some analysts in the process, confirmation that the UK had experienced two negative quarters of economic growth came in February 2024.
It has been noted, including by Jeremy Hunt, that this priority’s success is in tension with the first on halving inflation. The Bank of England has raised interest rates fourteen consecutive times to 5.25 per cent and the government has ruled out tax cuts and spending.
This is one factor which indicates that Sunak is not out of the woods on the economy yet, even despite the ONS figures.
Of course, for the pledge to be met on technical grounds Sunak only needs growth of 0.1 per cent, which many economists would describe as stagnation.
RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO GROW THE ECONOMY?
At the end of January 2023, Jeremy Hunt outlined his new vision for long-term growth in the UK economy. His strategy is shaped around four pillars, all beginning with the letter “E”: enterprise, education, employment and everywhere.
Both Sunak and Hunt have also affirmed that technology is a strong focus in their growth plans, promising an increase in public funding in R&D of £20 billion.
Hunt finished his speech in January by saying, “Being a technology entrepreneur changed my life. Being a technology superpower can change our country’s destiny”.
At the start of September, the government announced the UK is rejoining the EU Horizon project.
Horizon is a collaboration involving Europe’s leading research institutes and technology companies which sees EU member states contribute funds that are then allocated to individuals or organisations on merit.
Announcing the move, Sunak said: “Innovation has long been the foundation for prosperity in the UK, from the breakthroughs improving healthcare to the technological advances growing our economy”.
In the autumn statement in November, with a general election looming, the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, announced £20 billion of tax cuts for workers and businesses targeted at growing the economy.
PRIORITY THREE: Get debt falling
January 2023 speech: “We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.”
REALITY: In June 2023, government debt rose above 100 per cent of GDP for the first time since 1961.
In addition, in August borrowing rose to £11.6 billion, according to the ONS. This was £3.5 billion more than a year earlier and the fourth highest August borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.
Experts had predicted public borrowing would stand at £11.1 billion last month.
However, it still comes in below the £13 billion that had been forecast by the government’s finance watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, back in March.
Borrowing for the financial year to date has now reached £69.6bn, according to the ONS.
Furthermore, we have no idea when Sunak intends to hit his debt target — that is except for the fact that the government’s fiscal rules mean it must be forecast to fall by the end of a five-year period.
In the Spring Budget, the government claimed to be on track because the OBR, which checks the health of the economy, forecast that debt as a proportion of GDP would fall in 2027-28.
CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?
When governments talk about debt falling, they likely mean as a proportion of GDP. And a report from the ONS published in August outlined that “stronger than forecast GDP improves debt picture”.
But the report was not wholly positive, adding: “Inflation continues to put upward pressure on spending, with increases in July’s interest costs, central government consumption, and uprated benefit payments.”
Ultimately, if Sunak does not achieve his second priority of growing the economy, then cutting debt becomes even harder.
RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO CUT THE DEBT?
To help meet this goal, Hunt has ruled out the tax cuts and pledged to uprate tobacco duty and bring forward a range of measures to tackle promoters of tax avoidance schemes in the Spring Budget.
PRIORITY FOUR: Cut NHS waiting lists
January 2023 speech: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.”
REALITY:
In an interview with TalkTV‘s Piers Morgan, Rishi Sunak admitted he has failed to deliver on his pledge to cut NHS waiting lists.
Conceding he had not met his target, the prime minister insisted industrial action in the health sector “has had an impact” on delivering the commitment.
Asked whether he had failed on the pledge, Sunak replied: “Yes, we have.”
The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England fell for the second month in a row in November, according to official figures.
An estimated 7.61 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of November, relating to 6.39 million patients, down from 7.71 million treatments and 6.44 million patients at the end of October, NHS England said.
The NHS waiting list in October decreased for the first time in a year,with a backlog of 7.71 treatments recorded, new figures show.
The backlog previously reduced from a record 7.77 million treatments in September. Before this, the last time there was a month on month improvement was November 2022 when the backlog decreased to 7.19 million from 7.21 in October 2022.
Victoria Atkins, the health and social care secretary, said the latest NHS waiting list statistics showed what progress can be made when the health service is not disrupted by strike action.
She said: “November was the first month without industrial action for over a year and we reduced the total waiting list by more than 95,000– the biggest decrease since December 2010, outside of the pandemic.
“This shows the progress our fantastic NHS staff can make towards bringing waiting lists down when they don’t have to contend with industrial action.
“We want to put an end to damaging strikes once and for all, and if the BMA Junior Doctors Committee can demonstrate they have reasonable expectations, I will still sit down with them.”
CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?
Until the last two sets of figures were published, waiting list numbers had been steadily growing since Sunak made his January speech, having already swelled during the pandemic when non-urgent treatment was delayed.
The government and NHS England have set the ambition of eliminating all waits of more than 18 months by April this year, excluding exceptionally complex cases or patients who choose to wait longer.
RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO CUT NHS WAITING LISTS?
In his five priorities speech, Sunak said: “We all share the same objective when it comes to the NHS: to continue providing high quality, responsive healthcare for generations to come. And that’s what we are going to deliver.”
Since then, Sunak has announced an extra £2.4 billion over the next five years to pay for an “NHS workforce plan”, which aims to fill more than 100,000 vacancies. Spending like this will help bring down waiting lists, but it will take time to have an effect.
PRIORITY FIVE: Stopping the ‘small boats’
January 2023 speech: “We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.”
REALITY:
6,265 small boats arrived between 1 January and 21 April 2024, compared with 5,049 during the same period the year before – an increase of 24 per cent.
Vietnamese and Afghan arrivals were the main two nationalities, making up 40 per cent of total arrivals during the period.
Of the 129,407 initial asylum decisions received between 15 April 2023 and 14 April 2024, 89,365 were substantive decisions.
Some 56,744 claims were granted and 36,597 were refused, representing a grant rate of 61 per cent.
However, the prime minister has since appeared to backtrack on this pledge, clarifying his January commitment by saying: “One of my five priorities is to stop the boats.”
He added: “I want it to be done as soon as possible, but I also want to be honest with people that it is a complex problem… I wouldn’t be being straight with people if I said that was possible.”
As Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, pointed out during an interview with the PM in April, Sunak’s crossings commitment is hardly vague. “You pledged to ‘stop the boats, not reduce the number, not bring the number down — actually to stopping them”.
CAN IT BE ACHIEVED?
In this light, actually “stopping” all small boats crossings before the next election seems ambitious indeed.
Critics also argue that recent dips in the number of crossings this year is due to poorer weather, which has deterred many potential migrants.
Moreover, as of December 2022, the Home Office asylum application backlog has surpassed 136,000, growth of 60 per cent compared to a year before. Rishi Sunak has pledged to clear the so-called “legacy backlog” by the end of 2023
RISHI SUNAK FIVE PLEDGES: WHAT IS THE PM DOING TO STOP THE BOATS?
The prime minister hopes that the Illegal Migration Act, which received Royal Assent on 20th July 2023, will help deter crossings, giving the government the power to set migration partnerships, meaning asylum seekers who enter the UK irregularly can be sent to another country the government deems “safe”.
The act has been met with fierce criticism. In a joint statement, the UN human rights chief Volker Turk and the UN refugees head Filippo Grandi said: “This new legislation significantly erodes the legal framework that has protected so many, exposing refugees to grave risks in breach of international law”.
The government said last month that each flight to Rwanda, the government’s flagship international deportations plan, would cost £169,000, making the system cheaper only if it brought about a drastic fall in the number of asylum seekers arriving.
In November, the Supreme Court’s five judges unanimously backed the judgement delivered by the Court of Appeal which declared the Rwanda policy unlawful because of the risk that asylum seekers sent to Rwanda would be returned to their own country and face persecution in breach of their human rights.
Responding to the Supreme Court’s ruling, Rishi Sunak said: “We have seen today’s judgment and will now consider next steps.
“This was not the outcome we wanted, but we have spent the last few months planning for all eventualities and we remain completely committed to stopping the boats”.
The prime minister has signalled a dual-pronged approach following his Supreme Court snubbing. In a press conference on the day of the ruling, Sunak revealed his government would pursue a revised treaty with Rwanda to replace the current Memorandum of Understanding and address the concerns identified by the Supreme Court.
And, on top of this, the government now plans to pass emergency legislation to decree to the courts that Rwanda is “safe” for all relevant purposes.
As things stand, the prime minister has yet to lay out the details of his emergency primary legislation. But the act of declaring Rwanda “safe” — any further attempts to override legislation through a “notwithstanding clause”, notwithstanding — would be hotly contested among parliamentarians, first in the commons and, second and more significantly, in the House of Lords.
With likely less than a year to an election, we have now entered the final session of parliament — it means the Lords is no longer merely a revising or delaying chamber. Rather, given peers can block legislation for up to a year under the terms of the Parliament Act 1949, a majority in House of Lords now has an effective veto on government legislation. The mere “ping pong” that accosted the Illegal Migration Act, as hostile amendments were summarily presented and disagreed with, would be nothing compared to the parliamentary impasse on any forthcoming Rwanda Is Actually Safe Bill.
And if the legislation does eventually pass, the government would likely face further legal challenges, both on the proposed Treaty and Sunak’s primary legislation.
Then, if Sunak’s Rwanda “Plan B” progresses past this point, there is the outstanding question of whether the legislation and Treaty actually address the concerns the Supreme Court expressed last Wednesday.
In the end, what seems fundamentally clear is that Sunak’s updated Rwanda approach will continue to be contested — legally, politically and morally — all the way up to a general election.
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Twitter here.
Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website, providing comprehensive coverage of UK politics. Subscribe to our daily newsletter here.
With additional reporting from Nick James.
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