Analysis: Economics poll

Political parties have no solution to economic woe

Friday, 29, Aug 2008 06:00

Today's poll merely confirms what Labour already knows, but it will make unfortunate reading for the Conservatives.

The party have clearly benefited from the conjunction of Labour's dire leadership and the poor state of the economy, but they give every indication of gathering support for anti-Labour, rather than pro-Tory, reasons.

Tory strategists have been fretting for some time now about the perceived softness of the Tory lead, and today's poll suggests it could disintegrate without much effort. One wonders what else the Conservatives could expect. Their suggestions for how they would deal with the current situation are few and far between. That's for one good, honest reason: there's nothing they can do about it.

Instead, the party has focused on the past with their borderline OCD assertion Gordon Brown didn't "fix the roof while the sun was shining". It's a phrase most political journalists, myself included, would rather jump out a tenth floor window than ever hear again, but successful politics is about repeating something until it's hammered deep in the public's consciousness. In this, they have succeeded.

While the percentages indicating trust in Labour and the Tories are identical at 21, politics.co.uk users clearly ascribed some blame to Labour for the state of the economy. Sixty-four per cent chose this option, rather than saying Labour was totally, or not at all, to blame.

Again, one wonders what else Labour could expect. Gordon Brown spent years telling anyone who would listen how he and Labour – but mostly he – was responsible for unending growth and the now rather childish suggestion that the era of boom and bust was over. You'd have to really believe that before sucking up all that good will, because otherwise you'd realise that people would blame you when things went wrong again. He was wrong, and now the bust tars his image just as the boom varnished it.

But that's not the whole story. The fact so many respondents said Labour was only partially responsible - despite every indication the public wants to blame Gordon Brown for everything that's wrong in the world - shows a high level of understanding of the international factors affecting the UK's economy. People know that no country is an island, so to speak, and that no government can really defend it's populace from oil prices and credit crunches.

All of which explains why so few people trust any party with the economy – they know they are effectively powerless.

Since well before the collapse of Bretton Woods, when currencies lost their fixed value, countries were unable to shield themselves from global conditions. But now, with sovereign governments like powerless children in the shadow of international capital, everyone knows political parties' naughty secret: there's nothing they can do beyond furiously bandage away the effects of economic downturns. And even that can prove increasingly difficult.

But today's results don't necessarily add up to the sum of their parts. Just because the public doesn't think the Tories would do any better with the economy doesn't mean they won't punish Labour for it. And any Labour punishment at the moment, with the Liberal Democrats still flatlining in the polls, benefits the Conservatives.

It's an old adage that electorates vote out ruling parties during economic downturns, and there's little reason to think the presence of a global economy will change that. Any change is good change when things are looking ugly.

Ian Dunt