Voter apathy could drive BNP victory

The 2008 London elections have emerged as a key prize for the British National Party, with the far-right party hoping to gain power on the Greater London Authority.

The BNP only need to gain five per cent of the vote to win a seat on the GLA, while a seven or eight per cent share would see the BNP take two of the assembly's 25 seats.

Past election results and opinion polling show this is not an unrealistic target for the party once dismissed as an extremist fringe. One YouGov poll placed support for the BNP at close to five per cent, and the party rightly points out that their share of the vote is frequently underestimated in opinion polls because supporters are reluctant to publicly associate themselves with the "whites-only" party.

Aside from having a realistic chance of gaining power on the assembly, the BNP is also fielding a candidate to be mayor. Richard Barnbrook's candidacy may have been overlooked by the two horse race of the Ken and Boris show, but his presence on the ballot paper gives the BNP a crucial advantage.

Because there are only ten candidates standing in the mayoral race, Mr Barnbrook will have double the official campaign materials available to promote his policies, unlike if 15 candidates had vied to oust Mr Livingston. The BNP consider it "an enormous free mail shot" to have two sides of A5 delivered freely to the 5.3 million registered voters in London.

The fact remains that to gain votes, however well publicised, the BNP's policies still have to resonate with voters. The BNP argues it is the only party appealing to white working class voters. The mainstream parties obviously reject this claim, but Labour figures admit the party has failed to retain its core working class support.

It is these voters left alienated by New Labour that the BNP is hoping to exploit. To his credit, mayor Ken Livingstone is awake to the BNP electorate threat and has addressed their appeal head on. Mr Livingstone argues the BNP will latch on to mainstream polices, such as housing and even the campaign to scrap the bendy bus, to gain power.

The BNP invariably rejects the claim its policies are extremist, and many are shared by other candidates such as Boris Johnson, including the pledge to restore Routemaster buses, plant more trees and install solar panels on all public buildings.

But included amid the populist concerns are policies to ban the veil on public transport and public buildings, make residency a criteria in allocating social housing, a ban on new mosques in London and the proposal to scrap the 2012 Olympics and allow Greece to hold all future games, because it is in keeping with the country's cultural heritage.

Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians believe the best way in preventing the BNP gaining power is by boosting voter turnout, with the belief the BNP vote will be diluted amid high participation. Campaigning alongside Mr Livingstone, the left-wing singer Billy Bragg argued come May 1st the BNP will rely on the anger of their supporters to propel them to the voting booth but also the complacency of other Londoners.

The high-profile – and increasingly close – race between Mr Livingstone and Mr Johnson could boost voter turnout and this may prove sufficient to prevent the BNP taking a seat in the London assembly. The BNP itself naturally remains optimistic, hoping May 1st will see them increase its number of councillors as well as winning a slim share of power in London.

In an election that once promised the biggest shock could be the election of Mr Johnson as mayor of London, the most surprising headline on May 2nd could yet be the election of the BNP to the GLA.