Analysis: What next for the Republicans?

John McCain's failure brings heartache for the Republicans

Wednesday, 05, Nov 2008 12:00

After eight years in power the American political pendulum has swung well and truly away from the Republicans with Barack Obama's presidential election victory.

Much soul-searching can be expected from the party's leaders as they look ahead at four years of a Democrat in the White House.

It's worse than that, though, for at least during part of Bill Clinton's time in the White House they were able to maintain an effective opposition from Congress.

Now both the House of Representatives and the Senate are controlled by the Democrats, meaning the immediate challenge will be one of mounting effective campaigns against the new president's reforming agenda.

As in the last two years the main tactic to be employed will be filibusters, given the Democrats' failure to achieve the 60-seat 'super-majority' needed to prevent the legislation-blocking tactic.

This is a fundamentally negative approach to politics, however, and does not offer a very edifying prospect for the party's future.

With commentators saying the Republican era which began with Ronald Reagan is now coming to an end the party will be doing some serious thinking if it wishes to recover from its predicament.

Many Republicans will feel the heart of the problems faced by its party lie in the 2008 campaign.

John McCain's attempt to paint himself as a maverick played perfectly with the party's desperate wish to disassociate him with George Bush.

He ultimately failed to convince them his voting record was sufficiently disloyal to the Republican agenda. Much of this can be excused – following Mr Bush was always going to be difficult - but Mr McCain's approach to the economic crisis proved a decisive mis-step.

The fundamentals of the economy were sound, he insisted, as the Dow plunged downwards, ruining his party's hopes. Even allowing for his age, there's not a chance the 72-year-old will be the candidate in 2012.

The same cannot be said of the Alaska governor who he unexpectedly chose to join him on the Republican ticket.

Sarah Palin will not make history by becoming the first female vice president of the United States this time around. Nevertheless many remain optimistic she may go one better in four years' time.

It's not yet clear whether the Palin effect helped or hindered the Republicans.

Detailed analysis of the polling data is expected to reveal her lack of experience fostered the perception she was not sufficiently prepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

She proved a rich source of parody from the nation's comedians. Tina Fey is now a household name across the country for her Saturday Night Live-rejuvenating impressions.

And the less said about her failure to identify a caller pretending to be French president Nicolas Sarkozy as a hoax the better.

Despite these weaknesses she lives to fight another day after surviving the media's customary intensive scrutiny.

The most promising story against her, the so-called Troopergate affair, ended hours before polling opened with a report quashing claims she had violated ethics laws. There are no practical obstacles to her championing the Republicans in 2012 on those grounds.

Those who were wowed by her speech to the party convention in Minneapolis Saint Paul will believe there are no other obstacles either.

Many will feel the folksy charm which made Mr Bush the party's darling comes across just as well through Mrs Palin.

She balanced Mr McCain's liberal approach to many issues by mobilising the Republican base. And they related to her self-identification as a hockey mom and small town America.

Mrs Palin remains a bright spot, therefore, as the Republicans look ahead into their bleak future.

The president-elect says the road will be long, but it will be even longer for those who oppose him. A fierce debate over the 2008 race will rage within the party for months, yet despite the misery it seems clear what consolation will be taken by the party as it seeks to move forward.

Mrs Palin returns to the icy wastes of Alaska for now. The Republicans will not forget her as they look ahead to November 6th 2012.

Alex Stevenson